Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Forecast for 2009

Next year is the year of living dangerously. The wall street and main street bloodbath will hit the bottom and everyone breathing in this planet will be shaking their head in accepting the fact that the day of stock gains and profit boom will not return quickly.
Here are my forecasts:
1. The new U.S. president will find it difficult to reverse the damaged done by the subprime, housing and investment crisis. He will be more insular protecting the economy of U.S. rather than giving aid to the other country. We will expect the new U.S. president to create jobs for the Americans (of course!) hence deportation for illegal immigrants and tighten entry of new ones.
2. There will be less remittance going to the Philippines if there will be retrenchment next year. If the companies in U.S. and Europe start to tighten their belts in order to survive the first thing that they will do is to cut operational costs. They will not hesitate to fire employees. Call centers, shipping, logistics, air lines, tourism will be the first to be hit by this belt tightening.
3. The $700 B package approved by Bush will not stimulate financial credit and there will companies that will still go under. Companies who borrowed in dollars and whose loan will mature for the next 3 years will find his boat rocking ferociously. With the advent of less customers and higher interest rate, it can bring the boat down.
4. Jobs will be available for those who got skills that others do not have.Technical skills will be favored instead of a sloppy college degrees from a sloppy colleges.Skills in electrical , electronics, automation, alternative energy, design will be highly sought by selective employers.
5. Philippines will still find itself in the bottom of the economic heap in southeast asia. The perception of corruption, poor infrastructure and low quality of education are issues that can not be erased by the current Malacañang occupants. She will be at the helm until 2010 and we have nothing to do but pray.
6. The Philippine economy is saved by the remittance of OFW. There will be less inflow of dollar or euro investment next year and the stock market will still be in the bear mode.
7. The Filipino family will find it more difficult to send their children to college. With the continuos rising cost of food, transportation,and utilities every filipino family will face a tremendous challege in 2009.
The predictions may sound gloomy but it is what I perceived as the reality of 2009.
But predictions are predictions.
It may come true or it may not. Still the future is in our hands and the antidote for gloomy things are actions.
Yes Og Mandino is right. It is better to act than be an spectators.
Let your nose be bloodied.


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